I am a bottom-up investor/trader. I make trading decisions by researching specific stocks and consider broader environmental factors as part of this process. It is hard to make accurate predictions about the economy because it is massively complex. The abundance of interconnected factors makes it is easy to come up with convincing arguments, but they are usually wrong. I try to limit the input of third party theories to my investment process other than listening to company management teams. They are experts in their respective industries and have access to primary evidence in real-time. By reading multiple commentaries from companies operating in overlapping segments it is possible to obtain a fairly reliable overview of conditions within a specific industry. I get a decent perspective of the overall economy by doing this for all sectors.